And here I am having a drink and reading the WSJ to ring in the new year...
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304591604579289771905130900?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
To a great 2014!
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
"Non-Polar" Geopolitics
Not much time to post, but read a pretty interesting editorial about the unwillingness of the two remaining Western Great Powers, the US and Germany, to use their clout to influence global geopolitics. Also appreciated the reference to Germany's ironic, and uncomfortable, dominance of Europe via economics after trying to conquer it all in the first half of the 20th Century...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323566804578549094192563534.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopBucket
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323566804578549094192563534.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopBucket
Sunday, June 16, 2013
Asian Unemployment
Been away for a long while. Currently in China interning. Which makes the following story that much more interesting:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100819262
It's not an earth-shattering article. Youth unemployment is awful throughout the world (this applies to myself). However, this quote piqued my interest:
"The only thing that worries them more than an unemployed low-skilled person is an unemployed educated person," said Shang-Jin Wei, a Columbia Business School economist.
It's pretty indicative of the state of the Chinese economy moreso than the global economy. Though in the immediate-term, we can probably explain this specific instance with global economic weakness, China's economic and social policy-set are rearing the "negative consequences" side of government intervention. It's a complex system made more complex by policy. Here, China has attempted to graduate and educate as many people as possible (though the quality of many graduates is... dubious), which on the whole, is good! (The US should really get on that one...) However, it seems like the combination of, well, the fact that China has so many people, has translated to way, way too many graduates, and the economy simply hasn't caught up to the fact. This goes along with the mismatch of way too much investment spending, out of consumers and export buyers, resulting in empty factories and apartments...
This is not to say the Chinese government shouldn't have done all these things. But China has reached a "balancing point" on many of its policies. The obvious one is the need to shift from an investment-spending based economy to a consumer-spending based economy, but other policies, like education or population control (China's population is set to shrink some time before 2050, I forget the last date) need to be rebalanced. Unfortunately, it seems like whenever you change anything in China, it's just like the US, someone gets pissed off. The only difference is that in China it's behind closed doors, while I'm America it's some guy(s) who yell really loud.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100819262
It's not an earth-shattering article. Youth unemployment is awful throughout the world (this applies to myself). However, this quote piqued my interest:
"The only thing that worries them more than an unemployed low-skilled person is an unemployed educated person," said Shang-Jin Wei, a Columbia Business School economist.
It's pretty indicative of the state of the Chinese economy moreso than the global economy. Though in the immediate-term, we can probably explain this specific instance with global economic weakness, China's economic and social policy-set are rearing the "negative consequences" side of government intervention. It's a complex system made more complex by policy. Here, China has attempted to graduate and educate as many people as possible (though the quality of many graduates is... dubious), which on the whole, is good! (The US should really get on that one...) However, it seems like the combination of, well, the fact that China has so many people, has translated to way, way too many graduates, and the economy simply hasn't caught up to the fact. This goes along with the mismatch of way too much investment spending, out of consumers and export buyers, resulting in empty factories and apartments...
This is not to say the Chinese government shouldn't have done all these things. But China has reached a "balancing point" on many of its policies. The obvious one is the need to shift from an investment-spending based economy to a consumer-spending based economy, but other policies, like education or population control (China's population is set to shrink some time before 2050, I forget the last date) need to be rebalanced. Unfortunately, it seems like whenever you change anything in China, it's just like the US, someone gets pissed off. The only difference is that in China it's behind closed doors, while I'm America it's some guy(s) who yell really loud.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Internet Ads
Since I am completely distracted from studying for my last exam, how about a little tidbit.
I could get into how I feel 75% of advertising is a waste of money. Brand advertisement is great (I'm lumping ads for things like movies and say, cereal, since the former might as well be a brand in and of itself, while cereals rely MUCH upon brand recognition, even if a brand is associated with individual cereal products). However, most targeted ads for specific products are fairly pointless...
With that out of the way, targeted ads are only effective if, well, they target correctly and get someone to actual buy something (eg. monetization of the advertising expenditure). This is why we have all of the trackers and privacy controversies regarding "Big Data".
That being said, the algorithms they use to figure out which ads that pop up must be HORRIBLE if you rely on my own experience. Currently, Youtube thinks I am a middle aged woman (Olay and Swiffer ads... based on the fact that I like to watch movie clips and animated shows from my childhood?), Facebook thinks I'm in the Tea Party and am APPLYING for college (why couldn't it just read that I'm... ya know... I college... or on a university network?), while Google is telling me I need help with my resume, probably based on the fact that I've sent my resume via email a billion times. Going to be honest, Facebook finally gave me an ad for a product I didn't know about and DEFINITELY want to buy ($200 replica lightsabers that, yes, you can duel with. The inner geek is going crazy) the other day. But that's A LOT of hit or miss. Excluding going to the movies (which I exclude since I only go to the movies once or twice a year for a movie I was probably going to watch without advertising), a few hundred dollars of ad conversion for me, maybe 5-10 years from now (I have other things on my wish list above lightsabers...), among the probable thousands of dollars of advertising thrown at me a day via TV, Youtube, and social media, is not a good investment for firms.
Yet, maybe I'm just incredibly frugal and am a tough customer. SOMEONE has to be buying to justify huge advertising expenditures. However, I know no one who has bought anything based on a Facebook ad (they used to disappear to most people I've spoken to, though they've remedied that buy sticking them into the news feed). Perhaps this is why going short on FB is the best idea...
I could get into how I feel 75% of advertising is a waste of money. Brand advertisement is great (I'm lumping ads for things like movies and say, cereal, since the former might as well be a brand in and of itself, while cereals rely MUCH upon brand recognition, even if a brand is associated with individual cereal products). However, most targeted ads for specific products are fairly pointless...
With that out of the way, targeted ads are only effective if, well, they target correctly and get someone to actual buy something (eg. monetization of the advertising expenditure). This is why we have all of the trackers and privacy controversies regarding "Big Data".
That being said, the algorithms they use to figure out which ads that pop up must be HORRIBLE if you rely on my own experience. Currently, Youtube thinks I am a middle aged woman (Olay and Swiffer ads... based on the fact that I like to watch movie clips and animated shows from my childhood?), Facebook thinks I'm in the Tea Party and am APPLYING for college (why couldn't it just read that I'm... ya know... I college... or on a university network?), while Google is telling me I need help with my resume, probably based on the fact that I've sent my resume via email a billion times. Going to be honest, Facebook finally gave me an ad for a product I didn't know about and DEFINITELY want to buy ($200 replica lightsabers that, yes, you can duel with. The inner geek is going crazy) the other day. But that's A LOT of hit or miss. Excluding going to the movies (which I exclude since I only go to the movies once or twice a year for a movie I was probably going to watch without advertising), a few hundred dollars of ad conversion for me, maybe 5-10 years from now (I have other things on my wish list above lightsabers...), among the probable thousands of dollars of advertising thrown at me a day via TV, Youtube, and social media, is not a good investment for firms.
Yet, maybe I'm just incredibly frugal and am a tough customer. SOMEONE has to be buying to justify huge advertising expenditures. However, I know no one who has bought anything based on a Facebook ad (they used to disappear to most people I've spoken to, though they've remedied that buy sticking them into the news feed). Perhaps this is why going short on FB is the best idea...
The Market
This is really more of a complaint than an analysis. The market REALLY needs to correct and tank a bit so that I can go in on ETFs and some stock picks... because I'm having a REALLY hard time believing that the market isn't overvaluing... pretty much everything!
Also picked LGF correctly at the beginning of the year. #winning
Also picked LGF correctly at the beginning of the year. #winning
Monday, April 8, 2013
Headlines
Didn't think my first post would be on something so brief, but a nice CNBC headline linking student debt ("tripled between 2004 and 2012") and how this will impact the housing market. Didn't need to read it to know that it's point would probably say how over-leveraged students won't be able to take our mortgages for a long, long time to make their first home purchases. Overall, just another problem with the student debt bubble, and an even greater indiction of how out-of-control American college costs have become.
A final point: something like education, a core towards developing future economic growth potential, really should never have an adverse impact on the macroeconomic picture. While it's a bit harder to make the same argument with health care (there is the argument that extending lives strain society's resources), both skyrocketing health care and university costs are fundamental services that form part of the the backbone society that have gone horribly awry. That... is a problem.
A final point: something like education, a core towards developing future economic growth potential, really should never have an adverse impact on the macroeconomic picture. While it's a bit harder to make the same argument with health care (there is the argument that extending lives strain society's resources), both skyrocketing health care and university costs are fundamental services that form part of the the backbone society that have gone horribly awry. That... is a problem.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Disclaimer
So this little blog is really just my place to spill out and record my thoughts about the world. I have a place for my own personal thoughts, about my life, and really only my close friends have access to that. But as those close friends know, I live multiple lives. Sometimes I feel like I'm living in completely separate realities, and it amazes me how I can slip so easily from one to the other.
And one of those realities is that of a student at an Ivy League institution with a fascination for, really, what seems like infinite knowledge. Interests include foreign/international relations, politics, the business world, and financial markets, more science-y things like physics and medicine, and plus more mundane things like film and culture. I'll admit, I'm someone who is very interested in everything but lacks the effort and motivation to actually seek out and truly learn about these things in depth unless I'm in an academic environment. I love reading, both the fictional and journalistic kinds, but since I have no time to catch up on my reading list these days, I tend to read as many news articles as I can in the short amounts of time (ok, really the very long periods of time...) I have to procrastinate my next assignment. And thus I like to think that I have a half-depth understanding of the world, though deeper in some aspects than others, without any true specialty in anything...
With all that in mind, this blog is going to serve as a place where I can sum up everything I'm thinking about regarding the world at any given time; my incomplete analysis of a complex world. This is really going to serve two purposes for me: as some place to organize my thoughts, as well as a repository that I can look back on in the future to see how my thinking has developed (basically, I'm expecting to facepalm at myself whenever I read my posts in a few years...).
So here's the disclaimer: I have no desire to reveal my true identity, really only because I don't want any employers hunting this down and complicating my life (though, the title of the blog should help narrow this down...). Likewise, I have no political affiliation, though I will openly admit I am as biased as anyone. I can definitely say I am a realist with a set of ideals that I hope the world can strive for. Overall, I consider myself a left-leaning moderate with a pragmatist streak, and can say what I've learned in the past few years has shifted me to the left a bit. Furthermore, I will openly acknowledge that some things I say may be stupid. Part of this is a learning process, and I make mistakes all the time. The last thing I am is someone who thinks he is always right and knows everything in the world, though I can say that I am one of the most stubborn people in the world until I see the light. Lastly, I don't intend on this being a truly public blog that will gain a billion followers and be famous ya-da-ya-da, but if I get a few comments and get some discussion going, that's great. That being said, bigots are not welcome, and if there is a delete comment function on this thing (as you can see, I'm new to this), I will use it.
Alright, I've definitely just begun a new way for me to waste time and procrastinate (guess what I'm doing right now in the middle of deadline season?). Lets go to it.
And one of those realities is that of a student at an Ivy League institution with a fascination for, really, what seems like infinite knowledge. Interests include foreign/international relations, politics, the business world, and financial markets, more science-y things like physics and medicine, and plus more mundane things like film and culture. I'll admit, I'm someone who is very interested in everything but lacks the effort and motivation to actually seek out and truly learn about these things in depth unless I'm in an academic environment. I love reading, both the fictional and journalistic kinds, but since I have no time to catch up on my reading list these days, I tend to read as many news articles as I can in the short amounts of time (ok, really the very long periods of time...) I have to procrastinate my next assignment. And thus I like to think that I have a half-depth understanding of the world, though deeper in some aspects than others, without any true specialty in anything...
With all that in mind, this blog is going to serve as a place where I can sum up everything I'm thinking about regarding the world at any given time; my incomplete analysis of a complex world. This is really going to serve two purposes for me: as some place to organize my thoughts, as well as a repository that I can look back on in the future to see how my thinking has developed (basically, I'm expecting to facepalm at myself whenever I read my posts in a few years...).
So here's the disclaimer: I have no desire to reveal my true identity, really only because I don't want any employers hunting this down and complicating my life (though, the title of the blog should help narrow this down...). Likewise, I have no political affiliation, though I will openly admit I am as biased as anyone. I can definitely say I am a realist with a set of ideals that I hope the world can strive for. Overall, I consider myself a left-leaning moderate with a pragmatist streak, and can say what I've learned in the past few years has shifted me to the left a bit. Furthermore, I will openly acknowledge that some things I say may be stupid. Part of this is a learning process, and I make mistakes all the time. The last thing I am is someone who thinks he is always right and knows everything in the world, though I can say that I am one of the most stubborn people in the world until I see the light. Lastly, I don't intend on this being a truly public blog that will gain a billion followers and be famous ya-da-ya-da, but if I get a few comments and get some discussion going, that's great. That being said, bigots are not welcome, and if there is a delete comment function on this thing (as you can see, I'm new to this), I will use it.
Alright, I've definitely just begun a new way for me to waste time and procrastinate (guess what I'm doing right now in the middle of deadline season?). Lets go to it.
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